by Paul Bentz | October 30, 2018

Comments: 0

Hobbs and Hoffman lead GOP opponents each by 1 point; Brnovich leads by 8 points

PHOENIX (October 30, 2018) – In the same survey that showed Governor Ducey with a commanding 19-point lead and McSally a single point ahead, other Republican candidates on the statewide ticket face a mixed bag of survey results.  Attorney General Mark Brnovich holds a steady 8-point lead over his challenger January Contreras, while the GOP candidates for Secretary of State and Superintendent of Public Instruction, both of whom defeated incumbents in the Primary, find themselves trailing their Democratic opponents.

“There are strong signs that female voters are favoring female candidates in this increasingly polarized election cycle.  The key differences in the three statewide down ballot races are mainly driven by the significant contrast in the opinions of the female survey respondents,” said Paul Bentz, Sr. Vice President of Research and Strategy at HighGround, Inc., “Despite all three male candidates facing female opponents, it would appear that the Attorney General is the only one bucking the trend that is significantly bolstering other statewide Democratic candidates.” 

The N=400 survey was conducted among likely voters 10/26 through 10/28.  It was a statewide live caller survey calling both landlines and cell phones.  The margin of error is ±4.9%.  The partisan advantage was set at +10% GOP based on the current trend in ballot returns.  As of today, GOP advantage in Early Ballot returns is exactly 10% with 1.1 million ballots returned according to Garrett Archer from the Arizona Secretary of State’s office. 

Q.  If the election for Attorney General were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Mark Brnovich or Democrat January Contreras?

47.3%    Mark Brnovich
39.3%    January Contreras
13.5%    Don’t know, Refused

Despite hundreds of thousands of dollars spent by the Steyer-backed Prop 127 committee attacking Brnovich, the Attorney General maintains a solid lead garnering 82.6% of the Republican vote.  He also leads among all Males (50.5% to 37.5%) and all Females though by a smaller margin (44.2% to 40.9%).  Brnovich trails among independent and unaffiliated voters (34.3% to 44.8%), but he does have a slight crossover appeal gathering 10.6% of the Democratic vote leaving Contreras with only 76.5% of Democrats.  It would also appear that he is benefitting from the relative lack of popularity surrounding Prop 127 which has relentlessly attacked him.

While Brnovich has a four-point advantage among females, Secretary of State Nominee Steve Gaynor is facing a nearly eight-point deficit among female voters trailing 40.9% to 48.6% to his opponent Katie Hobbs.  Gaynor enjoys 80.2% support from Republicans as well as 88.1% support from Very Conservatives and 72.1% from somewhat conservatives.  However, he does trail among Independent and unaffiliated voters (28.1% Gaynor to 55.2% Hobbs).   

Q.  If the election for Secretary of State were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Steve Gaynor or Democrat Katie Hobbs?

43.8%    Steve Gaynor
45.0%    Katie Hobbs
11.3%    Don’t know, Refused

Similar to Gaynor, Riggs is also experiencing a significant disadvantage of nearly 9 points among Female voters trailing his opponent Kathy Hoffman 35.1% to 43.8% respectively.  Riggs also experiences slightly softer support from the GOP with 71.5% support.  Nearly a quarter of all Republican women are still undecided in the race.  Riggs also has a challenge similar to Gaynor among Independent and unaffiliated voters (29.1% Riggs to 49.0% Hoffman).  It should be noted that the number of undecided voters in the Superintendent of Public Instruction race are significantly higher than in other races.

Q.  If the election for Superintendent of Public Instruction were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Frank Riggs or Democrat Kathy Hoffman?

40.0%    Frank Riggs
41.5%    Kathy Hoffman
18.5%    Don’t know, Refused

Bentz concluded, “To borrow a line from the Talking Heads, ‘Same as it ever was.’  Just as it always is in close Arizona elections, it will come down to Females and Independent and unaffiliated voters.  Brnovich has found a way to do it, while the others have not had as much success.  With nearly a million more ballots likely to come in, there is still time, but the window is closing fast.”

About the Survey

The poll surveyed 400 likely Arizona 2018 General Election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender.  The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users.  The partisan advantage was set at +10% GOP based on the current trend in ballot returns.  The margin of error is ±4.9%.

Q.           In general, would you say that the State of Arizona is heading in the right direction, or the wrong direction? [Right/Wrong]

21.0%    Definitely right direction
29.8%    Probably right direction
13.0%    Probably wrong direction
14.3%    Definitely wrong direction
22.0%    Don’t Know, Refused

Q.           What do you consider to be the top issue facing the State of Arizona today?  [Randomize]

38.3%    Immigration and Border Issues
34.8%    Education
9.0%      Healthcare
6.5%      Jobs and the Economy
3.0%      State Budget
2.8%      Other
2.5%      Don’t Know, Refused
1.8%      Taxes
1.5%      Transportation

Q.           If the election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Martha McSally, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, Green Candidate Angela Green?

46.5%    Martha McSally
45.3%    Kyrsten Sinema
3.5%      Angela Green
4.8%      Don’t know, Refused

Q.           If the election for Arizona Governor were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Doug Ducey, Democrat David Garcia, or Green Candidate Angel Torres?

54.8%    Doug Ducey
35.3%    David Garcia
3.5%      Angel Torres
6.5%      Don’t know, Refused

Q.           If the election for Secretary of State were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Steve Gaynor or Democrat Katie Hobbs?

43.8%    Steve Gaynor
45.0%    Katie Hobbs
11.3%    Don’t know, Refused

Q.           If the election for Attorney General were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Mark Brnovich or Democrat January Contreras?

47.3%    Mark Brnovich
39.3%    January Contreras
13.5%    Don’t know, Refused

Q.           If the election for Superintendent of Public Instruction were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Republican Frank Riggs or Democrat Kathy Hoffman?

40.0%    Frank Riggs
41.5%    Kathy Hoffman
18.5%    Don’t know, Refused

The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. HighGround “nailed” the Prop 123 election results within 0.2% of the outcome prior to the May 2016 Special election.  Visit our website to learn more about HighGround’s polling experience.

Survey Demographics




Tags:

Comments

There are no comments at this time.

Leave a Comment

What is 4 + 4?